APRIL INFLATION FORECAST SHOWS FURTHER DECLINE

Ghana's inflation rate is anticipated to continue it downward trend in April 2025, with analysts projecting a year-on-year decline to 21.8%. This follows March's moderation to 22.4%. The expected easing is larhely credited to stable fuel prices, a relatively firm cedi, and better food supply conditions.

Databank Research forecasts that the disinflation trend will persist, supported mainly by stronger food supply. However, they warn that maintaining this progress will depend heavily on monetary policy decisons. The Bank of Ghana has raised the policy rate to 28% to tackle inflation pressures and any early interest rate cuts-particularly during the May 2025 policy meeting-could threaten these gains.

Despite the encouraging signs, meeting the government's 2025 inflation target of 11.9% appears challenging. The Ghana National chamber of Commerce and Industry (GNCCI) has cautioned that the target may be missed. Economist Professor Patrick Asuming also described the goal as "a little aggresive," pointing to difficulties in reducing inflation below 23% during 2024.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary fund(IMF) projects that Ghana could achieve an end-of-year single-degit inflation rate of 8% in 2025,based on progress made under its programme with the country.

In summary, although inflation continues to ease, achieving the ambitious year-end targets will require consistent policy measures and favorable economic conditions.